Reconstruction and forecast of doses due to ingestion of 137Cs and 90Sr after the Chernobyl accident.

The assessment doses due to ingestion of (137)Cs and (90)Sr for the population suffering from the Chernobyl accident was performed on the basis of the new mechanistic ecological model for assessment of radiological consequences of agricultural lands contamination (EMARC). The EMARC model allows estimation of internal doses based on ecological factors influencing the contamination of foodstuff, for the post-accidental years in the countries of the former Soviet Union. The EMARC model allows estimation of all quantities required in radiation hygiene practice. For example, the proposed analytical method may be used for both retrospective dose reconstruction and prospective estimates of annual dose and integrated "life-time" dose, for different age intervals. According to the EMARC model, estimated reference "life-time" doses for adults are between 7 and 269 microSv kBq(-1) m(2) for (137)Cs, and between 25 and 235 microSv kBq(-1) m(2) for (90)Sr. Maximal doses were estimated for persons who were 3, 9 and 11 years old, at the time of the accident and these doses exceed those for adults by a factors of 1, 5 for (90)Sr, and 1.4 for (137)Cs.