M Somerville1, R Garside, M Pitt, K Stein. 1. Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry, C308, Portland Square, University of Plymouth, Drake's Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK. Margaret.somerville@pms.ac.uk
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. DESIGN: Cost-utility model. SETTING: UK NHS. PATIENTS: One thousand 55-year-old men with Barrett's oesophagus. INTERVENTION: Surveillance programme: endoscopy and biopsy at 3 yearly intervals for non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus; low-grade dysplasia yearly; high grade-dysplasia 3 monthly. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, expected value of perfect information. RESULTS: Non-surveillance dominated surveillance (i.e. cost less and conferred more benefit), but there was substantial uncertainty around many of the model inputs. Probabilistic analyses showed that non-surveillance cost less and conferred more benefit in 75% of model runs. Surveillance was cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay in 11% of runs. For people with Barrett's oesophagus in England and Wales, a value of pound6.5 million is placed on acquiring perfect information about surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. CONCLUSIONS: The PenTAG cost-utility model suggests that surveillance programmes do more harm than good.
OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. DESIGN: Cost-utility model. SETTING: UK NHS. PATIENTS: One thousand 55-year-old men with Barrett's oesophagus. INTERVENTION: Surveillance programme: endoscopy and biopsy at 3 yearly intervals for non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus; low-grade dysplasia yearly; high grade-dysplasia 3 monthly. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, expected value of perfect information. RESULTS: Non-surveillance dominated surveillance (i.e. cost less and conferred more benefit), but there was substantial uncertainty around many of the model inputs. Probabilistic analyses showed that non-surveillance cost less and conferred more benefit in 75% of model runs. Surveillance was cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay in 11% of runs. For people with Barrett's oesophagus in England and Wales, a value of pound6.5 million is placed on acquiring perfect information about surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. CONCLUSIONS: The PenTAG cost-utility model suggests that surveillance programmes do more harm than good.
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