Predicting the likelihood of remission in children with Graves' disease: a prospective, multicenter study.

OBJECTIVE: The optimal treatment for Graves' disease in children is controversial. Antithyroid medications are often used initially, but many children eventually require alternative therapies. We evaluated predictors of remission after 2 years of antithyroid medication use.
METHODS: We prospectively studied children who had Graves' disease and were treated with antithyroid medications. We compared children who achieved remission after 2 years with those who had persistent disease to determine which variables were associated with remission; multiple logistic regression and binary recursive partitioning analyses were used to evaluate interactions among predictive variables.
RESULTS: Of 51 children who completed the study, 15 (29%) achieved remission. Children who achieved remission had lower thyroid hormone concentrations at presentation than those with persistent disease (free thyroxine: 6.17 +/- 3.10 vs 9.86 +/- 7.54 ng/dL; total triiodothyronine: 431 +/- 175 vs 561 +/- 225 ng/dL). Children who achieved remission were also more likely to be euthyroid within 3 months of initiating propylthiouracil (82% vs 29%). Binary recursive partitioning analysis identified rapid achievement of euthyroid status after initiation of propylthiouracil, lower initial triiodothyronine, and older age as significant predictors of remission. CONCLUSIONS; Thyroid hormone concentrations at diagnosis, age, and initial response to propylthiouracil can be used to stratify patients according to the likelihood of remission after 2 years of antithyroid medication use. These data provide a useful guide for clinical decision-making regarding Graves' disease in children.