Habitat use and life history as predictors of bird responses to habitat change.

In theory the consideration of life-history characteristics should provide a way of making predictive generalizations about the responses of different species to environmental modification. Nevertheless, few studies have tested the validity of this assumption or attempted to apply it across large numbers of related species. We explored both quantitative and qualitative contrasts between species of waterbirds that have either expanded or contracted their ranges in southern Africa over the past 40 years to test the hypothesis that expansionists and contractionists, respectively, should share life-history characteristics and/or ecological attributes. Similarities and differences in life history and ecology were explored through multivariate statistics. Overall, life-history traits provided an inadequate explanation of whether species would be range expansionists or contractionists. By contrast, ecological attributes of species that related to habitat use correlated well with range changes. In particular, waterbird species that inhabit pans seemed to be preadapted to using human-made dams and impoundments. The ability of many species to use artificial wetlands has aided their westward range expansions into arid regions of southern Africa. By contrast, species that rely on vegetated wetlands and that require reeds for nesting were predisposed to range contraction because their habitats have been severely affected by agricultural development and urbanization. In direct contrast to range expansions, most range contractions were west to east, the eastward contraction reflected the high level of wetland loss and degradation in the eastern lowlands of South Africa. Based on analysis of ecological attributes of regional contractionists, several additional species were identified as of potential conservation concern, although such concern may not as yet have been expressed.