Literature DB >> 18231840

On the delayed Ross-Macdonald model for malaria transmission.

Shigui Ruan1, Dongmei Xiao, John C Beier.   

Abstract

The feedback dynamics from mosquito to human and back to mosquito involve considerable time delays due to the incubation periods of the parasites. In this paper, taking explicit account of the incubation periods of parasites within the human and the mosquito, we first propose a delayed Ross-Macdonald model. Then we calculate the basic reproduction number R0 and carry out some sensitivity analysis of R0 on the incubation periods, that is, to study the effect of time delays on the basic reproduction number. It is shown that the basic reproduction number is a decreasing function of both time delays. Thus, prolonging the incubation periods in either humans or mosquitos (via medicine or control measures) could reduce the prevalence of infection.

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Year:  2008        PMID: 18231840      PMCID: PMC2673502          DOI: 10.1007/s11538-007-9292-z

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Bull Math Biol        ISSN: 0092-8240            Impact factor:   1.758


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