Rate of atherosclerotic plaque formation predicts cardiovascular events in ESRD.

Carotid intima media thickness (IMT) is a strong, independent predictor of cardiovascular events in both the general population and among those with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), but it is unknown whether changes in IMT or other ultrasound-measured indicators of atherosclerosis over time provide additional prognostic information. The progression of atherosclerosis with carotid ultrasound was followed in a cohort of 135 ESRD patients, 103 of whom had a repeat ultrasound after 15 mo of follow-up. The number of plaques and the proportion of patients with severe atherosclerosis increased substantially during the follow-up period, but IMT, common carotid artery diameter, common carotid artery wall-to-lumen ratio, and cross-sectional area, did not change. The rate of formation of new plaques was a strong, independent predictor of incident cardiovascular events, even after adjusting for baseline plaque burden and other potential confounders. New plaque formation over time was independently predicted by background plaque burden and serum C-reactive protein (P = 0.004 and P = 0.02, respectively). Changes in IMT and the other ultrasound-measured indicators of atherosclerosis progression did not predict cardiovascular outcomes. Therefore, monitoring IMT over time is unlikely to provide additional prognostic information compared with a single measurement, but longitudinal ultrasound monitoring of plaque formation may be useful for cardiovascular risk stratification in the ESRD population.