Managed-care plans. Their future under national health insurance.

The nation's health maintenance organizations, preferred-provider organizations, independent practice associations, and similar managed-care efforts are not well positioned to take a leadership role in a nationwide universal access or national health insurance plan. They--with the possible exception of some large staff and group health maintenance organizations--have been unable to show uniformly that they can contain costs, provide better access or higher quality of care, and achieve greater patient satisfaction than fee-for-service endeavors. As the United States pursues universal access as a step toward national health insurance, the managed-care plans will continue to increase their numbers of subscribers. They will not, however, be able to enroll large numbers of the young, low-income employees and their dependents who account for most of the 63 million people uninsured sometime during each year. Under national health insurance, there might be an option for some health maintenance organizations to negotiate capitated payments. The vast majority of the nation's physicians, however, will reluctantly embrace a centrally managed fee-for-service approach rather than a salary or capitated reimbursement method, leaving only a trace of the competitive managed-care plan theme in a future, primarily monolithic, national health care system.