Sherman C Stein1, Wensheng Guo. 1. Department of Neurosurgery, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19106, USA. sherman.stein@uphs.upenn.edu
Abstract
OBJECT: The object of this study was to mathematically model the prognosis of a newly inserted shunt in pediatric or adult patients with hydrocephalus. METHODS: A structured search was performed of the English-language literature for case series reporting shunt failure, patient mortality, and shunt removal rates after shunt insertion. A metaanalytic model was constructed to pool data from multiple studies and to predict the outcome of a shunt after insertion. Separate models were used to predict shunt survival rates for children (patients < 17 years old) and adults. RESULTS: Shunt survival rates in children and adults were calculated for 1 year (64.2 and 80.1%, respectively), 5 years (49.4 and 60.2%, respectively), and the median (4.9 and 7.3 years, respectively). The longer-term rates predicted by the model agree closely with those reported in the literature. CONCLUSIONS: This model gives a comprehensive view of the fate of a shunt for hydrocephalus after insertion. The advantages of this model compared with Kaplan-Meier survival curves are discussed. The model used in this study may provide useful prognostic information and aid in the early evaluation of new shunt designs and techniques.
OBJECT: The object of this study was to mathematically model the prognosis of a newly inserted shunt in pediatric or adult patients with hydrocephalus. METHODS: A structured search was performed of the English-language literature for case series reporting shunt failure, patient mortality, and shunt removal rates after shunt insertion. A metaanalytic model was constructed to pool data from multiple studies and to predict the outcome of a shunt after insertion. Separate models were used to predict shunt survival rates for children (patients < 17 years old) and adults. RESULTS: Shunt survival rates in children and adults were calculated for 1 year (64.2 and 80.1%, respectively), 5 years (49.4 and 60.2%, respectively), and the median (4.9 and 7.3 years, respectively). The longer-term rates predicted by the model agree closely with those reported in the literature. CONCLUSIONS: This model gives a comprehensive view of the fate of a shunt for hydrocephalus after insertion. The advantages of this model compared with Kaplan-Meier survival curves are discussed. The model used in this study may provide useful prognostic information and aid in the early evaluation of new shunt designs and techniques.
Authors: Sara Iglesias; Bienvenido Ros; Álvaro Martín; Antonio Carrasco; Miguel Segura; Andrea Delgado; Francisca Rius; Miguel Ángel Arráez Journal: Childs Nerv Syst Date: 2016-08-05 Impact factor: 1.475