Research into HIV and AIDS between 1981 and 1990: the epidemic curve.

The main features of research into HIV and AIDS between 1981 and 1990 were examined using a database of medical, nursing and dental journals [compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM) version of the Medline database (Silver Platter Information Services, London, UK)]. More than 30,000 papers on HIV and AIDS were indexed by Medline between 1981 and 1990. Of these, only 3% were concerned with African populations although a quarter of AIDS cases worldwide were reported from African countries during the decade. The number of papers on HIV/AIDS increased from 24 in 1982 to an estimated 8300 in 1990. Between 1983 and 1988 the number of indexed papers on HIV/AIDS increased at around 50-60% per year; between 1988 and 1989, however, the rate of growth fell to 6%. The percentage of papers discussing the aetiology of AIDS fell from 25 to 3% between 1983 and 1990. During the same period, papers concerned with HIV increased from 2 to 37% of the HIV/AIDS total. Research into drug therapy also accounted for an increasing proportion of indexed papers during the decade. The percentage of papers dealing with prevention and control rose to 18% in 1988, but had declined to 12% by 1990. Priorities for the 1990s should include a renewed interest in aetiology and a sustained emphasis on prevention. Furthermore, countries that have so far been neglected should be granted priority in future research.