Predictive value of serum procollagen-III-peptide for the survival of patients with cirrhosis.

The value of the aminoterminal procollagen-III-peptide (P-III-P) in predicting death or survival was evaluated in a group of 43 patients with proven postnecrotic or alcoholic cirrhosis. Patients were followed-up prospectively for 2 years. The prognostic value of P-III-P was compared with the Child classification, fasting and postprandial serum bile acids, and standard laboratory tests such as bilirubin, prothrombin index, pseudocholinesterase, albumin, GOT, GPT, gamma-GT, and clinical findings such as ascites, encephalopathy (assessed with the number connection test = NCT), and nutritional status. Between patients who died and those who survived the following 2 years, there were significant differences in the following parameters at the time of inclusion in the study: encephalopathy judged by NCT (p = 0.001), serum albumin (p = 0.0012), postprandial serum bile acids (p = 0.0024), fasting serum bile acids (p = 0.0025), pseudocholinesterase (p = 0.0044), GOT (p = 0.015), bilirubin (p = 0.016), and prothrombin index (p = 0.01). None of the other parameters investigated, including SP-III-P (p = 0.46), revealed any statistically significant differences between patients who died and survivors. The prognostic significance of laboratory tests and recorded clinical findings was evaluated, either alone or in combination with life-table analysis using the Cox model. SP-III-P, alone or in combination with other parameters, failed to improve prediction of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. In comparison to the Child classification (p = 0.0004) the combination of NCT and postprandial serum bile acids showed a similar ability (p = 0.0003) to predict patient survival.