Impact of myxomatosis in relation to local persistence in wild rabbit populations: the role of waning immunity and the reproductive period.

Many diseases are less severe when they are contracted in early life. For highly lethal diseases, such as myxomatosis in rabbits, getting infected early in life can represent the best chance for an individual to survive the disease. For myxomatosis, early infections are attenuated by maternal antibodies. This may lead to the immunisation of the host, preventing the subsequent development of the lethal form of the disease. But early infection of young individuals requires specific demographic and epidemiological contexts, such as a high transmission rate of the pathogen agent. To investigate other factors involved in the impact of such diseases, we have built a stochastic model of a rabbit metapopulation infected by myxomatosis. We show that the impact of the pathogen agent can be reduced by early infections only when the agent has a long local persistence time and/or when the host subpopulations are highly connected. The length of the reproductive period and the duration of acquired immunity are also important factors influencing the persistence of the pathogen and thus, the impact of the disease. Besides confirming the role of classical factors in the persistence of a pathogen agent, such as the size of the subpopulation or the degree of connectivity, our results highlight novel factors that can modulate the impact of diseases whose severity increase with age.