Serology: a robust indicator of malaria transmission intensity?

To estimate the burden of malarial disease, and evaluate the likely effects of control strategies, requires reliable predictions of malaria transmission intensity. It has long been suggested that antimalarial antibody prevalences could provide a more accurate estimate of transmission intensity than traditional measures such as parasite prevalence or entomological inoculation rates, but there has been no systematic evaluation of this approach. Now, the availability of well characterized malarial antigens allows us to test whether serological measurements provide a practical method for estimating transmission. Here we present a suggested methodology, highlight the advantages and shortcomings of serological measurements of malaria transmission and identify areas in which further work is desirable.