Incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in the Nordic countries 1971-2000.

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is the sixth most frequent cause of death from cancer in Europe in men as well as women. Apart from smoking, little is known about the aetiology of PC. This study examines trends in incidence and mortality of PC in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden from 1971 to 2000, using the database NORDCAN, with data on incident cases of PC derived from the national cancer registries and data on deaths from PC from the national registries on causes of death. The analysis included 91 842 incident cases and 96 430 deaths from PC in a total population of about 23 million. The mean age at diagnosis was 69 years for males in the Nordic countries for the period 1996-2000 and 72 years for females. Using the age-specific rates from year 2000 to calculate the cumulative risk, 8.4 of 1 000 Nordic men and 6.7 of 1 000 Nordic women will develop PC before the age of 75 years. Over the past 30 years incidence and mortality rates have been decreasing in males and remained stable without any particular trend in females whether examined by calendar time or birth cohort. However, there are considerable difficulties in obtaining true estimates of the incidence and mortality from PC, since less than 60% of incident cases are verified histologically and autopsy rates have decreased over time.