Risk of intracranial aneurysm bleeding in autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease.

Patients with autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) carry an increased risk of developing intracranial aneurysms. Bleeding from these sites is a significant complication with the events reported to cluster in some families. In this study we determined if individualized risk of aneurysm rupture can be estimated based on family history using a Bayesian random effects model. Previously reported data were used to define distributions and to construct a model that fit these data. Our results confirm that intracerebral aneurysm bleeding in ADPKD patients tends to cluster in families and that basic family history can provide a simple estimate of family-specific risk.