Spatiotemporal monitoring of floodwater mosquito dispersal in Osijek, Croatia.

This paper demonstrates the possibility of using geostatistics to monitor the dispersal of mosquitoes for mosquito control programs at the municipal level. The case study objective was to quantify the dispersal of floodwater mosquitoes from the natural marshland Kopacki rit into the city of Osijek, Croatia, and to analyze the main factors controlling it. Fifty thousand adult Aedes vexans, Ochlerotatus sticticus, and Ochlerotatus caspius mosquitoes were marked with a powdered fluorescent pigment and released from the southern part of Kopacki rit on April 28, 2004. Forty CO2-baited Centers for Disease Control and Prevention traps were set in the area of the municipality of Osijek (171 km2) and were monitored for 10 days. A total of 582,471 mosquitoes were captured and examined in the laboratory. The mosquito counts from different sites were then interpolated using ordinary kriging and visualized dynamically to detect the dominant migrational directions. Mosquito dispersal and frequency were greatly influenced by wind speed (r = 0.82). The marked mosquitoes were found at 12 sites located from 1 km to 11.7 km away from the release point. The recapture rate was 0.044% (54% Oc. sticticus, 32% Ae. vexans, and 14% Oc. caspius). Based on the Lincoln index, the estimated total population size for floodwater mosquitoes in the study area ranged from 875 million to 2.0 billion mosquitoes. Limitations of the approach, recommendations for the improvement of the monitoring network, and spatial predictions are further discussed.