Predicting the initiation of substance abuse in Iranian adolescents.

Limited information is available on adolescent's substance abuse in Iran. The aims of this study are to estimate incidence rate of substance abuse among the sample of 10-grade male students in Tabriz City (northwestern region of Iran), and to evaluate the associated factors. Of all grade-10 male students in Tabriz, 1785 (13.7%) were randomly sampled, and were assessed twice. A self-administered questionnaire with 48 questions was distributed to students in February and March 2005. After one year (February and March 2006), another questionnaire with 10 items was distributed to those students to determine the incidence rate of substance abuse. The influence of different factors on substance abuse was evaluated with a logistic regression model. The mean age of the subjects was 16.3+/-0.87 (min. 15, max. 19) years. At the end of follow-up, 10.1% and 2.2% of students reported incidence of alcohol use and drug abuse respectively. This study has shown low prevalence of substance abuse, but higher incidence rate of substance abuse.