Aberrant crypt foci and semiparametric modeling of correlated binary data.

Motivated by the spatial modeling of aberrant crypt foci (ACF) in colon carcinogenesis, we consider binary data with probabilities modeled as the sum of a nonparametric mean plus a latent Gaussian spatial process that accounts for short-range dependencies. The mean is modeled in a general way using regression splines. The mean function can be viewed as a fixed effect and is estimated with a penalty for regularization. With the latent process viewed as another random effect, the model becomes a generalized linear mixed model. In our motivating data set and other applications, the sample size is too large to easily accommodate maximum likelihood or restricted maximum likelihood estimation (REML), so pairwise likelihood, a special case of composite likelihood, is used instead. We develop an asymptotic theory for models that are sufficiently general to be used in a wide variety of applications, including, but not limited to, the problem that motivated this work. The splines have penalty parameters that must converge to zero asymptotically: we derive theory for this along with a data-driven method for selecting the penalty parameter, a method that is shown in simulations to improve greatly upon standard devices, such as likelihood crossvalidation. Finally, we apply the methods to the data from our experiment ACF. We discover an unexpected location for peak formation of ACF.