Model of Japanese serow (Capricornis crispus) energetics predicts distribution on Honshu, Japan.

Understanding what determines a species' range is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. It has important applications for predicting species distributions and how they might respond to environmental perturbations. This paper describes a mechanistic approach to predict past and present distribution of the Japanese serow (Capricornis crispus) on Honshu, Japan. We applied state-of-the-art microclimate and animal biophysical/behavioral models coupled with climate and vegetation data to estimate the distribution of potential range expansion under protection. We tested the model results against detailed empirical distribution data from the Ministry of the Environment for a five-prefecture area in central Honshu. We also applied the models to time-series land use/cover maps to investigate the historical transitions in habitat suitability during 1947-1999 in the Arai-Keinan region. This is the first time to our knowledge that mechanistic models have successfully predicted the landscape scale distribution of a mammal species in the absence of other animal species interactions, such as predators. In this case, animal energetics/behavior-plant interactions seem to be critical. Forest cover appears to be important in summer and winter for suitable serow habitats. The energetics model results indicate that the serow can overheat in some open environments in midday hours in summer. In winter, simulation results suggested that forest cover provides effective refuge to avoid increased metabolic demands of cold temperatures and strong winds. The model simulations suggested that land use/cover changes documented during 1947-1999 resulted in increased suitable serow habitat due to expanding forest cover from agricultural marginalization and ecological succession. The models provide a unique tool for estimating species' range expansion under protection or for selecting suitable reintroduction sites.