Incident renal events and risk factors in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: a population and family-based cohort followed for 22 years.

For determination of the incidence of renal events in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) all patients who had ADPKD and attended nephrology/urology clinics in Newfoundland in 1981 were identified, and members of 18 families who were at 50% risk for inheriting ADPKD were followed prospectively for 22 yr, including research clinics at 6-yr intervals. Time to hypertension treatment, stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), ESRD, and death was measured, and the impact of genotype, gender, gender of parent who transmitted PKD, family, family history of essential hypertension, parity, and oral contraceptive pill was assessed. Nine (50%) families had PKD1, four (22%) had PKD2, and one had both PKD1 and PKD2. The number of family members with PKD1 was 136 and with PKD2 was 60. In PKD1 median age to hypertension treatment was 46 yr, to CKD stage 3 was 50 yr, to ESRD was 53 yr, and to death was 67 yr. In PKD2, median age to hypertension treatment was 51 yr, to CKD stage 3 was 66 yr, to death was 71 yr, and ESRD was infrequent. Although the incidence of CKD was later and ESRD occurred infrequently in PKD2 compared with PKD1, early onset of hypertension occurred and life expectancy was compromised. Genotype, family, and proteinuria were identified as risk factors for incident renal events. Gender, gender of parent who transmitted PKD, family history of essential hypertension, multiparity, and use of the oral contraceptive pill were not identified as risk factors for renal events in ADPKD.