Interannual variation in rainfall, drought stress and seedling mortality may mediate monodominance in tropical flooded forests.

Flood tolerance is commonly regarded as the main factor explaining low diversity and monodominance in tropical swamps. In this study we examined seedling mortality in relation to seasonality, i.e., flooding versus drought, of the dominant tree species (Prioria copaifera), and three associated species (Pterocarpus officinalis, Carapa guianensis and Pentaclethra macroloba), in seasonally flooded forests (SFF) in Darien, Panama. Seedling mortality differed among species, years and seasons. Prioria seedlings experienced the lowest overall mortality, and after 3 years many more Prioria seedlings remained alive than those of any of the associated species. In general, within species, larger seedlings had greater survival. Seed size, which can vary by close to 2 orders of magnitude in Prioria, had a confounding effect with that of topography. Large-seeded Prioria seedlings experienced 1.5 times greater mortality than small-seeded seedlings, as large-seeded Prioria seedlings were more likely to be located in depressions. This finding suggests that seed size, plant size and topography are important in understanding SFF regeneration. For all species, seedling mortality was consistently greater during the dry season than during flooding. For Prioria, dry season seedling mortality was correlated with drought stress, that is, high mortality during the long El Niño dry season of 1998 and the normal dry season of 2000, but very low dry season mortality during the mild dry season of 1999. Prioria's ability to dominate in seasonally flooded forest of Central America is partly explained by its low drought-related mortality in comparison to associated species.