Literature DB >> 17684743

Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection.

M G Roberts1, J A P Heesterbeek.   

Abstract

We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number R0 early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of R0 with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of R0, and we quantify the discrepancies that arise.

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Year:  2007        PMID： 17684743      PMCID： PMC2782110          DOI： 10.1007/s00285-007-0112-8

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  J Math Biol        ISSN： 0303-6812            Impact factor:   2.259


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