A meta-analysis quantifying transmission parameters of FMDV strain O Taiwan among non-vaccinated and vaccinated pigs.

Our aim was to provide additional estimates of main parameters for the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) strain O Taiwan (3/97). We used the data of previous experiments in non-vaccinated and vaccinated pigs and combined the data of experiments with the same treatment(s). First, we quantified the reproduction ratio R for the various groups using a final-size method. Our final-size results predicted that vaccination with a four-fold vaccine dose (but not with a single dose) at 1 week before inoculation (-7 dpi) would reduce R compared to the non-vaccinated group. Secondly, we used the daily results of virus excretion to quantify the transmission rate beta (by using generalized linear modelling), and the infectious period T (by using survival analysis). We used the estimates of beta and T to estimate R more precisely as compared to the final-size method and also for the groups for which a finite estimate could not be obtained using a final-size method. Our modelling results predicted that beta for non-vaccinated, for single-dose and four-fold-dose groups would be 6.1 (3.7, 10)day(-1), 2.0 (1.0, 4.0)day(-1) and 0.4 (0.1, 1.4)day(-1), T at 6.5 (5.7, 7.3), 5.3 (4.7, 6.0) and 2.3 (0.9, 5.7) days and R at 40 (21, 74), 11 (4.9, 24) and 1.0 (0.1, 7.8), respectively. These results predicted that both vaccination with a four-fold vaccine dose and with a single dose at -7 dpi would reduce beta, T and R significantly as compared to the non-vaccinated pigs, thereby showing that vaccination will reduce transmission of FMDV significantly already 1 week post vaccination.