When do simpler sexual behavior data collection techniques suffice? An analysis of consequent uncertainty in HIV acquisition risk estimates.

The "gold standard" for evaluating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention programs is a partner-by-partner sexual behavior assessment that elicits information about each sex partner and the activities engaged in with that partner. When collection of detailed partner-by-partner data is not feasible, aggregate data (e.g., total numbers of partners and acts of various types) must suffice. Lack of specificity in the primary data often translates into uncertainty in modeled outcomes, such as participants' risk of HIV acquisition. To our knowledge, no previous study has attempted to quantify this uncertainty. The results of the present analysis of the risk of HIV acquisition by men vacationing in Key West indicate that the use of aggregate rather than partner-by-partner data introduced relatively little uncertainty into the HIV risk estimates. Collection of aggregate data is a viable alternative to detailed partner-by-partner data, at least in some circumstances.