Assessing the long-term impact of drug court participation on recidivism with generalized estimating equations.

Drug courts are one of the most common strategies for dealing with the large proportion of criminal offenders who are drug-involved, yet methodological limitations limit the conclusions that can be drawn from many existing evaluations of their effectiveness. The current study examined the long-term impact of drug court participation compared to regular probation on the recidivism of 475 drug-involved offenders under supervision in Hillsborough County, Florida. Using a combination of self-reported data (collected through in-person interviews at baseline, i.e., the beginning of supervision) and administrative records, the study employed a repeated measures framework (examining five 6-month time periods from baseline to 30 months post-baseline) and generalized estimating equations to compare the likelihood of being arrested between drug court participants and a matched sample of comparison offenders. The results indicate that participation in drug court was associated with a significant decrease in the likelihood of being arrested in the 12-18 months post-baseline time period. Although the drug court effect was somewhat delayed (it was not significant prior to 12 months) and short-lived (it was not significant after 18 months), the fact that significant program effects were observed during a time period that coincides with the conclusion of drug court participation for graduates and a time period well beyond initial program exposure, suggests that drug court participants are more likely than comparable offenders not exposed to drug court to remain arrest free when no longer under community supervision.