Estimating annual survival in sexually dimorphic species from proportions of first-year birds.

We estimated the annual adult survival (S) of several species of temperate and tropical sexually dimorphic tanagers and manakins from the proportions of first-year and older individuals in museum collections. In the case of the sexually dimorphic species included here, young males through their first year resemble females and can be distinguished from older males. We assumed that the sex ratio among first-year birds is even and estimated the number of immature females (IF) in a sample as equal to the number of immature males (IM), using sex information on museum labels. The number of adult females (AF) is the total number of females (F) minus IF, and survival can be estimated by S = AF/F. We used a Monte Carlo resampling approach to estimate standard errors and 1% and 99% confidence limits on S for samples of size N, based on 1000 sets of N randomly drawn individuals and observed proportions of the F, IM, and AM classes. Estimates of annual survival (S) were 0.60-0.73 in four North American species of Piranga tanagers and 0.50 and 0.62 in two montane Central American species. Values of S in lowland species of Habia and Ramphocelus tanagers ranged between 0.68 and 0.82. Annual survival in Pipra manakins was 0.53-0.68, and values for two Manacus species were 0.69 and 0.70. Where estimates of apparent survival (phi) from capture-recapture studies were available, the two methods produced correlated results with a tendency for phi < S. Among tanagers, only Ramphocelus dimidiatus (0.82) and Piranga bidentata (0.50) stood out from the other species, for which S averaged 0.66 +/- 0.05 (SD). Annual survival rates of temperate and tropical species overlapped broadly in this analysis, reinforcing the conclusion that distinctive life-history traits of temperate vs. tropical species cannot be explained completely by the adjustment of reproductive investment in relation to adult survival and the expectation of future life.