Control versus no control: options for avian influenza H5N1 in Nigeria.

In January 2006, an outbreak of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was recorded in Nigeria for the first time. This present work describes an estimation of possible costs associated with a vaccination-based control policy added to other measures to restrict HPAI H5N1 virus infections. The evaluations used epidemiological and production data, including budgets necessary for the vaccine acquisition, distribution and administration in arriving at the final costs. Using decision tree and cost benefit analysis the economical benefits for Nigeria and countries with similar veterinary infrastructures, biosecurity and farming systems are calculated. The result indicated that a halting in the continued spread of the virus through effective control measure will be 52 times better than taking no action. This should help policy makers in deciding in favour of vaccination combined with other tools as an effective means of controlling avian influenza H5N1. * Control of HPAI H5N1 will best be understood by policy makers in financial terms. * Effective control through vaccination of poultry is much cheaper and reduces the chances of human zoonoses. * Poultry vaccination combined with other control measures will be the most effective means of control in most developing economies.