Statistical modelling of 10-year fatal cardiovascular disease risk in Greece: the HellenicSCORE (a calibration of the ESC SCORE project).

INTRODUCTION: Interest in the development of functions that estimate the likelihood of an individual suffering a future cardiovascular disease (CVD) event has increased in recent times (e.g. Framingham sheets, SCORE-Systematic COronary Risk Estimation, PROCAM, etc.). However, the estimates of absolute risk may show substantial variations between different populations, because of geographical, cultural, social, behavioural and genetic differences, as well as various methodological issues related to the predictive models employed. We sought to calibrate the SCORE equations to the Greek population.
METHODS: We used the SCORE system that offers an estimation of total fatal CVD risk in "high" and "low" CVD risk European countries. The project pulls together a pool of datasets from 12 European countries and 2.7 million person-years of observation. A mathematical procedure to adjust the risk estimates for individual countries was applied, based on local mortality and risk factor prevalence data from the ATTICA epidemiological study, which enrolled 3042 men and women (18+ years old), from the Attica region of Greece.
RESULTS: We present the calibration of the HellenicSCORE (equations, charts) by age group and sex, based on mortality data, as reported by the National Statistical Services, and prevalence data regarding smoking, total cholesterol and blood pressure levels, as reported by the ATTICA study.
CONCLUSION: The proposed HellenicSCORE will hopefully result in better estimation of the risk of CVD death in Greece and enhance handling of CVD risk factors in the referent population.