Simulating forest structure, timber production, and socioeconomic effects in a multi-owner province.

Protecting biodiversity has become a major goal in managing coastal forests in the Pacific Northwest--an area in which human activities have had a significant influence on landscape change. A complex pattern of public and private forest ownership, combined with new regulations for each owner group, raises questions about how well and how efficiently these policies achieve their biodiversity goals. To develop a deeper understanding of the aggregate effect of forest policies, we simulated forest structures, timber production, and socioeconomic conditions over time for the mixture of private and public lands in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. To make these projections, we recognized both vegetative complexity at the stand level and spatial complexity at the landscape level. We focused on the two major factors influencing landscape change in the forests of the Coast Range: (1) land use, especially development for houses and cities, and (2) forest management, especially clearcutting. Our simulations of current policy suggest major changes in land use on the margins of the Coast Range, a divergence in forest structure among the different owners, an increase in old-growth forests, and a continuing loss of the structural elements associated with diverse young forests. Our simulations also suggest that current harvest levels can be approximately maintained, with the harvest coming almost entirely from private lands. A policy alternative that retained live trees for wildlife would increase remnant structures but at a cost to landowners (5-7% reduction in timber production). Another alternative that precluded thinning of plantations on federal land would significantly reduce the area of very large diameter (>75 cm dbh) conifer forests 100 years into the future