Predictive factors of malignant or invasive intraductal papillary-mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas.

The aim of this study was to identify useful preoperative diagnostic findings indicative of malignant or invasive intraductal papillary-mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) of the pancreas to determine an optimal operative procedure for IPMN. Sixty-two IPMNs, which consisted of 29 adenomas, 10 borderline tumors, 11 adenocarcinomas in situ, and invasive adenocarcinomas were reviewed from 1990 to 2003. Preoperative predictive factors of malignant or invasive IPMN were analyzed among 10 factors by univariate and multivariate analysis. Diameter of the main pancreatic duct (> or =6 mm) and cytological examination of the pancreatic juice (the presence of malignant cells) were identified as independent predictive factors of malignant IPMN, and only cytological examination of the pancreatic juice (the presence of malignant cells) was identified as an independent predictor of invasive IPMN by multivariate analysis (P < 0.05). There was no recurrent disease in patients with adenoma and adenocarcinoma in situ, whereas recurrences occurred in 6 of 12 patients with invasive IPMN. Patient survival in noninvasive IPMN was significantly (P = 0.018) better than that in invasive IPMN (The overall 5-year survival rates were 87.2% and 49.2%, respectively). These results might be useful for selecting an optimal surgical procedure for IPMN.