Literature DB >> 17444921

The format in which uncertainty information is presented affects decision biases.

Daniel A Gottlieb1, Talia Weiss, Gretchen B Chapman.   

Abstract

We examined how the format in which uncertainty information is presented affects two biases in humans' choice behavior. In a computer task, participants were given four common-ratio effect and four common-consequence effect problems in each of four different formats. In these problems, uncertainty information was described, as percentages (e.g., 80%) or as frequencies (e.g., 16/20), or was experienced, either serially (20 outcomes shown one at a time) or simultaneously (20 outcomes all shown at once). Presenting information as percentages attenuated the common-ratio effect and augmented the common-consequence effect, which suggests that these biases have different underlying mechanisms. Participants' percentage estimates of outcome likelihoods did not differ according to the format in which the information was presented; however, participants' nonverbal estimates of outcome likelihoods differed across formats. The results suggest that uncertainty information presented as percentages is processed differently than the same uncertainty information presented in other formats.

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Year:  2007        PMID: 17444921     DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2007.01883.x

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Psychol Sci        ISSN: 0956-7976


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