BACKGROUND: Studies using consecutive liver biopsies constitute an attractive approach to gaining insight into the pathogenesis of alcoholic liver disease. AIM: To analyse histological factors at baseline, which are predictive of fibrosis progression and recurrence of alcoholic hepatitis. RESULTS: A total of 193 drinkers underwent consecutive biopsies at an interval of 4 years. At baseline, 20 had normal livers, 135 steatosis, five fibrosis and 33 alcoholic hepatitis. The fibrosis score increased from 1.07 +/- 0.07 to 1.7 +/- 0.94 (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, only steatosis (P = 0.04), alcoholic hepatitis (P = 0.0004) and stage of fibrosis (P < 0.0001) were independent predictive factors of the fibrosis score at the second biopsy. Cirrhosis developed more frequently in patients with steatosis (11%) and alcoholic hepatitis (39%) than in others (0%, P < 0.0001). Alcoholic hepatitis recurred more frequently in patients with alcoholic hepatitis at baseline: 58% vs. 15%, P < 0.0001. In multivariate analysis, alcoholic hepatitis at the first biopsy was the only predictive factor of its recurrence (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of drinkers with consecutive biopsies, steatosis, fibrosis stage and alcoholic hepatitis at baseline were independent predictive factors of fibrosis progression. In terms of mechanisms, we propose a novel concept of multiple hits of alcoholic hepatitis occurring in the same patient.
BACKGROUND: Studies using consecutive liver biopsies constitute an attractive approach to gaining insight into the pathogenesis of alcoholic liver disease. AIM: To analyse histological factors at baseline, which are predictive of fibrosis progression and recurrence of alcoholic hepatitis. RESULTS: A total of 193 drinkers underwent consecutive biopsies at an interval of 4 years. At baseline, 20 had normal livers, 135 steatosis, five fibrosis and 33 alcoholic hepatitis. The fibrosis score increased from 1.07 +/- 0.07 to 1.7 +/- 0.94 (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, only steatosis (P = 0.04), alcoholic hepatitis (P = 0.0004) and stage of fibrosis (P < 0.0001) were independent predictive factors of the fibrosis score at the second biopsy. Cirrhosis developed more frequently in patients with steatosis (11%) and alcoholic hepatitis (39%) than in others (0%, P < 0.0001). Alcoholic hepatitis recurred more frequently in patients with alcoholic hepatitis at baseline: 58% vs. 15%, P < 0.0001. In multivariate analysis, alcoholic hepatitis at the first biopsy was the only predictive factor of its recurrence (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of drinkers with consecutive biopsies, steatosis, fibrosis stage and alcoholic hepatitis at baseline were independent predictive factors of fibrosis progression. In terms of mechanisms, we propose a novel concept of multiple hits of alcoholic hepatitis occurring in the same patient.