[An 8-year prospective follow-up study of physicians departing health care in Belgium (1994-2002)].

Several OECD countries have capped the number of physicians to be licensed to practice. However, a relevant cap must take into account changes in physician activities. We set out to study the transitions leading physicians to leave health care or to stop any activity in health system. These transitions were assessed using a register of medical practice. We studied changes in activity between 1994 and 2002 for about 19,840 physicians who in 1994 were already working for 5 years and were in 2002 less than 65 years old. After 8 years of career, one physician out of 20 were inactive in health system. Some medical specialties such as surgery and radiotherapy had a greater risk of leaving health care while GP's had a lower risk. Gender differences in leaving health system were mostly non-existant in younger age groups but then increased with age. Among physicians aged 55 and over, women were more likely to leave health system. We conclude that the percentage of physicians leaving health care after 5 years of practice is significant and deserve being taken into account for manpower planning and that planning should be aware of that some groups of physicians are more at risk than others to leave health care. Qualitative studies would help understand better this drop out.