Predicting factors for severity of rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective multicenter cohort study of 172 patients over 3 years.

Rheumatoid arthritis may take an unfavourable course leading to rapid functional decline in a certain percentage of patients. Early identification of these patients is desirable. The aim of this study was to evaluate clinical and laboratory parameters for their value in the prediction of bad outcome. A total of 172 patients with early arthritis were followed for 3 years. Higher initial values for erythrocyte sedimentation rate, IgG and IgM rheumatoid factor, serum concentration of cartilage oligomeric matrix protein, Health Assessment Questionnaire score, Larsen score of feet, disease activity score, and swollen and tender joint count predicted worse outcome. An association with the presence of IgA rheumatoid factor or anti-cyclic-citrullinated peptide could not be established. We conclude that prognosis in an individual with rheumatoid arthritis depends on many factors. The determination of independent prognostic factors for progression of rheumatoid arthritis is a valuable tool in early arthritis to select patients for more aggressive therapy.