A Delphi exercise used to identify potential causes of variation in litter size of Ontario swine.

Forty-eight people, considered to the swine experts, were asked to collaborate in a Delphi exercise to identify the factors which they believed affect litter size in Ontario swine. The panel included 16 animal scientists, 16 pork producers, and 16 veterinarians in swine practice. The ten factors with the highest ratings were parity of the sow, mycotoxins in the feed, infections with porcine parvovirus or Leptospira spp., breeding gilts on their second versus first observed estrus, the timing of breeding with respect to the onset of estrus, purebred versus crossbred sows, boar overuse (bred by a boar that was mated more than six times per week), pen versus hand mating, age of gilt when first bred, and body condition of the sow at the time of conception. The experts did not agree about the effect on litter size of the sow's previous lactation, factors ensuring adequate nutrient intake during lactation, health of the sow and the boar, breed of a purebred sow, or the ease of mating the sow.Key items in the use of the Delphi technique to arrive at a consensus are discussed.