Evaluating rotavirus vaccination in England and Wales. Part I. Estimating the burden of disease.

Rotavirus is a major cause of gastroenteritis in young children. New vaccines for rotavirus are now available and countries need to establish the health and economic burden of rotavirus disease to assess whether vaccine introduction is advisable. This study assesses the fraction of acute gastroenteritis in children under 5 years that may be attributable to rotavirus using multiple linear regression. Results suggest around 45% of hospitalisations, 25% of GP consultations, 27% of NHS Direct calls and 20% of accident and emergency (A&E) attendances for acute gastroenteritis in this age group may be attributable to rotavirus. The annual incidence is estimated to be 4.5 hospitalisations, 9.3 A&E consultations, and 28-44 GP consultations per 1000 children under five years of age. The cost to the health service is estimated to be pound 14.2m per annum. Rotavirus vaccination has the potential to reduce this burden of disease. This study provides a sound basis on which to make this assessment and serves as a baseline against which any reductions that do occur if vaccination is introduced can be measured against.