Left atrial volume monitoring and cardiovascular risk in patients with end-stage renal disease: a prospective cohort study.

Left atrial volume (LAV), as indexed by height(2.7), has recently emerged as an useful echocardiographic measurement to refine the estimate of cardiovascular (CV) risk in ESRD. Whether progression or regression in LAV has prognostic value in patients with ESRD is still unknown. The prognostic value for CV events of changes in LAV was tested in a cohort of 191 dialysis patients. Echocardiography was performed twice, 17 +/- 2 mo apart. Changes in LAV that occurred between the second and the first echocardiographic studies were used to predict CV events during the ensuing 27 +/- 13 mo. During the follow-up, there was a significant increase in LAV (from 10.5 +/- 5.0 to 11.6 +/- 5.6 ml/m(2.7); P < 0.001). After the second echocardiographic study, 76 patients died (52 [68%] of CV causes) and 33 had nonfatal CV events. The independent association between changes in LAV and CV events was analyzed in a multiple Cox regression model taking into account a series of potential confounders, including baseline LAV and left ventricular mass and geometry. In these models, a 1-ml/m(2.7) per yr increase in LAV was associated with a 12% increase in the relative risk for fatal and nonfatal CV events (P < 0.001). Changes in LAV predict incident CV events in dialysis patients independent of the corresponding baseline measurement and of left ventricular mass. Monitoring LA size by echocardiography is useful for monitoring CV risk in patients with ESRD.