Beyond the point of no return? A comparison of genetic diversity in captive and wild populations of two nearly extinct species of Goodeid fish reveals that one is inbred in the wild.

The relative importance of genetic and non-genetic factors in extinction liability has been extensively debated. Here, we examine the levels of genetic variability at 13 (seven informative) loci in wild and captive populations of two endangered species of Mexican Goodeid fish, Ameca splendens and Zoogoneticus tequila. Allelic diversity was higher in the wild populations, and F(IS) lower. Values of theta (=4Nemu) were estimated using a coalescent approach. These implied that the effective population size of all captive populations of A. splendens were smaller than that of the wild population; qualitatively similar results were obtained using an analytical method based on within-population gene identity disequilibrium. However, the wild population of Z. tequila did not show a significantly greater estimate of theta. We used the Beaumont approach to infer population declines, and found that both species showed clear evidence of a decline in effective population size, although this was stronger and probably occurred over a longer period of time in Z. tequila than in A. splendens. The decline in Z. tequila probably occurred before captive populations were established. We discuss implications for the conservation of critically endangered populations.