Designing artificial selection experiments for specific objectives.

The observed genetic gain (DeltaP) from selection in a finite population is the possible expected genetic gain E(Delta G) minus the difference in inbreeding depression effects in the selected and control lines. The inbreeding depression can be avoided by crossing the control and selected male symbol and female symbol parents to unrelated mates and summing the observed gains. The possible expected gain will be reduced by an amount D from the predicted gain because of the effects of the genetic limit and random genetic drift, the magnitude of which is a function of effective population size, N. The expected value of D is zero in unselected control populations and in the first generation for selected populations. Therefore, this source of bias can be reduced by increasing N in the selected populations and can be avoided by selecting for a single generation. To obtain observed responses which are unbiased estimates of the predicted response from which to estimate the realized heritability (or regression) in the zero generation, or to test genetic theory based on infinite population size, single-generation selection with many replications would be most efficient. To measure the "total" effect or genetic efficiency of a selection criterion or method, including the effect of different selection intensities, effective population sizes, and space requirements, more than one generation of selection is required to estimate the expected response in breeding values. The efficiency, in the sense of minimum variance, of estimating the expected breeding values at any generation t will decline as the number of generations t increases. The variance of either the estimated mean gain or the regression of gain on selection differential can be reduced more by increasing the number of replicates K than by increasing the number of generations t. Also the general pattern of the response over t can be estimated if the N's are known. Therefore, two- or not more than three-generation selection experiments with many replications would be most efficient.