A mathematical model to predict the composition and generation of hospital wastes in Iran.

The aim of this study is to investigate the quality and quantity of hospital wastes in Iran. The generated hospital wastes have been estimated by the number of hospitals and the number of active beds in each province of Iran in 2001. All data and information have been gathered from: (i) Iran Statistics Center, (ii) literature review, and (iii) hospital waste investigations for an average hospital. Physical analyses have been conducted in terms of various materials (plastic, textile, paper, metal, and others) and components (biological, infectious, medical, and regular wastes). Based on the above-mentioned investigation and information, a mathematical model has been developed to calculate the generation of (infectious) hospital wastes for any desired year. Utilizing the model, generated infectious hospital wastes has been estimated as 698,937 tones for 2008 (short-term) and 3,494,387 tones for 2028 (long-term period). If the real infectious wastes are collected separately, then the generated infectious wastes will be reduced by 15.1% of the above-mentioned amount (139,787 tones for 2008, and 698,877 tones for 2028). Results of physical analysis show the components of the hospital waste as: (a) infectious, 67.3%; (b) medical, 8.8%; (c) biological, 1.8%; and (d) common municipal wastes, 22.1%. An appropriate collection method requires training the staff at hospitals along with preparation of the required facilities. Of course, both of these requirements are cost intensive.