Local and global quantitative structure-activity relationship modeling and prediction for the baseline toxicity.

The predictive accuracy of the model is of the most concern for computational chemists in quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) investigations. It is hypothesized that the model based on analogical chemicals will exhibit better predictive performance than that derived from diverse compounds. This paper develops a novel scheme called "clustering first, and then modeling" to build local QSAR models for the subsets resulted from clustering of the training set according to structural similarity. For validation and prediction, the validation set and test set were first classified into the corresponding subsets just as those of the training set, and then the prediction was performed by the relevant local model for each subset. This approach was validated on two independent data sets by local modeling and prediction of the baseline toxicity for the fathead minnow. In this process, hierarchical clustering was employed for cluster analysis, k-nearest neighbor for classification, and partial least squares for the model generation. The statistical results indicated that the predictive performances of the local models based on the subsets were much superior to those of the global model based on the whole training set, which was consistent with the hypothesis. This approach proposed here is promising for extension to QSAR modeling for various physicochemical properties, biological activities, and toxicities.