Long-term absenteeism due to sickness in Sweden. How long does it take and what happens after?

In this paper, we analyze exits from long-term sickness spells in Sweden. Using data for more than 2,500 people, the aim is to analyze the transition to different states: return to work, full disability pension, partial disability pension, and other exits from the labor force. Given the complexity of the exit decision, which encompasses both the individual's choice, the medical evaluation and the decision of the insurance adjudicator, we consider the outcome as being the result of two aspects of the exit process: one that governs the duration of a spell prior to the decision to exit, and another that governs the type of exit. Therefore, the analysis is done in two steps: first, we analyze the duration of the sickness spells, and then we analyze the process that governs the type of exit. The results indicate that both individual characteristics and push factors, such as regional unemployment, are important for both components of the decision process.