A prediction model for the incidence patterns of female breast cancers in Alexandria, Egypt.

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in the world. Female breast cancer incidence has historically increased all over the world during the past decades. The purpose of this study was to estimate the patterns of female breast cancer incidence in Alexandria, Egypt, from 1972 to 2001. An up-to-date perspective systematically collected data on the incidence of female breast cancers was used. Age categories-estimated incidence over the 30 years period were computed. Time series analysis showed that incidence of breast cancers is increasing significantly during the studied period. Linear trend model was best fitted, with the studied interval and the estimated cancer cases per year taken into account. Age-incidence correlation showed a high correlation between age group of 40-50 years old and incidence. Analysis of the patterns for cancer incidence indicates that the highest occurrence of female breast cancer is shown in the age category of 45-50 years followed respectively by the age categories of 40-45 years, 50-55 years, 35-40 years and then 55-60 years. These findings support the growing body of evidence from female breast cancer incidence suggesting that age is a well-known risk factor for breast cancer susceptibility.