Estimating the circadian rhythm in the risk of occupational injuries and accidents.

The authors recently published a prototypic Risk Index (RI) to estimate the risk of critical errors associated with shift systems. This RI was based on published trends in the relative risk of injuries and accidents, and a simple additive model was proposed to estimate the risk for a given shift system. However, extending the RI to irregular work schedules requires an estimation of the phase and amplitude of the circadian rhythm in risk. This paper integrates the published evidence on three independent sources of data that allow such estimations to be made: the trend in risk over a 24 h day, over the course of the night shift, and across the three different (8 h) shifts. Despite potential confounders, maximum risk (i.e., acrophase = peak time) estimates across these three trends showed a remarkable consistency, with all three estimates occurring at about midnight, although the amplitude estimates varied considerably. The best estimate of the amplitude of the circadian rhythm in risk would appear to be that based on trend over the three (8 h) shifts, as this trend is the least confounded. The estimated acrophase (peak time) in risk appeared earlier than would be predicted from consideration of the circadian rhythm in alertness, fatigue, or performance on simple interpolated tasks, such as reaction time or performance on the Psychomotor Vigilance Test.