Spring temperature, clutch initiation date and duck nest success: a test of the mismatch hypothesis.

1. Increases in average global temperature during the twentieth century have prompted calls for research on the effect of temperature variation on avian population dynamics. Particular attention has been paid to the hypothesis that increased temperatures may affect a species' ability to shift their breeding efforts to match the phenology of their prey, and thus result in reduced reproductive success (the 'mismatch hypothesis'). 2. We used data from a long-term study of breeding ducks to investigate how duck nest success varied with clutch initiation date, and to test whether spring temperature affected this relationship in a manner consistent with the mismatch hypothesis. We modelled five possible functional forms of how nest success might vary with clutch initiation date and spring temperature, and used an information-theoretic approach to determine which model best described the nesting outcomes of five dabbling duck species nesting in Saskatchewan, Canada. 3. Probability of nest success for the five species did not vary strongly with clutch initiation date, and we found evidence consistent with the mismatch hypothesis for one species, northern pintail Anas acuta, although weight of evidence was weak. 4. Overall nest success of all five species was positively associated with spring temperature. These results suggest that increasing spring temperature alone (within the range observed in this study) may not affect nest success in a manner that would result in lower populations of breeding ducks.