Contamination of packaged food by substances migrating from a direct-contact plastic layer: Assessment using a generic quantitative household scale methodology.

The contamination risk in 12 packaged foods by substances released from the plastic contact layer has been evaluated using a novel modeling technique, which predicts the migration that accounts for (i) possible variations in the time of contact between foodstuffs and packaging and (ii) uncertainty in physico-chemical parameters used to predict migration. Contamination data, which are subject to variability and uncertainty, are derived through a stochastic resolution of transport equations, which control the migration into food. Distributions of contact times between packaging materials and foodstuffs were reconstructed from the volumes and frequencies of purchases of a given panel of 6422 households, making assumptions about household storage behaviour. The risk of contamination of the packaged foods was estimated for styrene (a monomer found in polystyrene yogurt pots) and 2,6-di-tert-butyl-4-hydroxytoluene (a representative of the widely used phenolic antioxidants). The results are analysed and discussed regarding sensitivity of the model to the set parameters and chosen assumptions.