Modeling global-scale fate and transport of perfluorooctanoate emitted from direct sources.

The long-term (1950-2050) global fate of perfluorooctanoate (PFO) is investigated using the global distribution model, GloboPOP. The model is used to test the hypotheses that direct PFO emissions can account for levels observed in the global oceans and that ocean water transport to the Arctic is an important global distribution pathway. The model emission scenarios are derived from historical and projected PFO emissions solely from direct sources. Modeled ocean water concentrations compare favorably to observed PFO concentrations in the world's oceans and thus ocean inventories can be accounted for by direct sources. The model results support the hypothesis that long-range ocean transport of PFO to the Arctic is important and estimate a net PFO influx of approximately 8-23 tons per year flowing into the model's Northern Polar zone in 2005, an amount at least 1 order of magnitude greater than estimated PFO flux to the Arctic from potential indirect sources such as atmospheric transport and degradation of fluorotelomer alcohols. Modeled doubling times of ocean water concentrations in the Arctic between 1975 and 2005 of approximately 7.5-10 years are in good agreement with doubling times of PFO in Arctic biota estimated from monitoring data. The model is further applied to predict future trends in PFO contamination levels using forecasted (2005-2050) direct emissions, including substantial reductions committed to by industry. Modeled ocean water concentrations in zones near to sources decline markedly after 2005, whereas modeled concentrations in the Arctic are predicted to continue to increase until approximately 2030 and show no significant decrease for the remaining 20 years of the model simulation. Since water is the primary exposure medium for Arctic biota, these model results suggest that concentrations in Arctic biota may continue to rise long after direct emissions have been substantially reduced or eliminated.