An analytical model assessing the potential threat to natural habitats from insect resistance transgenes: continuous transgene input.

The potential effects of 'escape' of genetically modified material (transgenes) into natural communities is a major concern in their use. These effects may be limited in the first instance by limiting the proportion of transgene-carrying plants in the natural community. We previously presented an analytical model of the ecological processes governing the relative abundance and persistence of insect resistance (IR) transgenes in a natural community. In that paper, we illustrated the case in which the transgene is input into the community in a single season using data from oilseed rape (OSR) and its known herbivore, Plutella macropennis. We found that the transgene is unlikely to have a great impact on the natural community. Here, we extend the model for repeated input of crop pollen carrying the transgene. We show the model output, again using OSR, for continuous input of the transgene over 10 years, the projected commercial lifetime of a transgene without associated undesirable agronomic effects. Our results do not change our original conclusion that the IR transgene need not have a large impact on the natural community and our suggestions for assessing and mitigating any threat still stand.