Generation amount prediction and material flow analysis of electronic waste: a case study in Beijing, China.

The draft legislation on e-waste prepared by the Chinese national government assigns management responsibility to local governments. It is an urgent task for the municipal government to plan an effective system as soon as possible to divert the e-waste flow from the existing informal e-waste recycling processes. This paper presents a case study implemented in Beijing, the capital city of China, with the purpose of predicting the amount of obsolete equipment for five main kinds of electronic appliances from urban households and to analyse the flow after the end of their useful phase. The amount to be handled was 885,354 units in 2005 and is predicted to double by 2010. Due to consumption growth and the expansion of urbanization it is estimated that the amount will increase to approximate 2,820,000 units by 2020: 70% of the obsolete appliances will be awaiting collection for possible recycling, 7% will be stored at the owner's home for 1 year on average and 4% will be discarded directly and enter the municipal solid waste collecting system. The remaining items will be reused for about 3 years on average after the change of ownership. The results of this study will assist the waste management authorities of Beijing to plan the collecting system and facilities needed for management of e-waste generated in the near future.