Age at occurrence of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in naturally infected dairy cows.

Paratuberculosis is a chronic infection of ruminants and other species caused by Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (Map). Establishing test strategies for paratuberculosis will require insight into the temporal aspects of certainty with a given test. In this study, the age at which cows tested positive by ELISA and fecal culture (FC) was investigated by use of time-to-event analyses. The effects of herd, parity, and shedding group were evaluated at the age of test-positive ELISA and FC, respectively. Finally, the test frequency was investigated for the probability of cows being tested ELISA-positive. Milk and fecal samples were collected repeatedly over a 3-yr period from 1,776 Danish dairy cows from 8 herds. The milk samples were tested for the presence of antibodies by using an ELISA, and an FC test was used for detection of Map. Repeated ELISA testing detected 98 and 95% of cows classified as high and low shedders, respectively, suggesting that most infected cows develop antibodies. Among the high shedders, 50% were positive before 4.3 yr of age (quartiles 1 to 3: 3.4 to 5.7 yr of age). Repeated FC detected only 72% of the cows that were ELISA-positive, and 50% of the ELISA-positive cows were detected by FC at 7.6 yr of age. The age with the highest probability of testing positive was determined as the interval with the steepest slope in the survival probability plots. The highest probability of testing positive by ELISA was from 2.5 to 4.5 yr of age. The highest probability of testing positive by FC was from 2.5 to 5.5 yr of age. For both ELISA and FC, testing positive was highest in the first 300 d in milk. For cows younger than 4 yr of age, monthly testing with ELISA, compared with testing every 2 yr, could increase the probability of detecting cows with antibodies by 19%. In older cows, there were no apparent differences in the probability of testing positive by monthly sampling compared with sampling every second year. Therefore, for older animals the effect of more frequent sampling would be for early detection rather than to obtain additional information. Cows shedding high numbers of Map will produce antibodies, although not necessarily concomitantly with the shedding. These antibodies can be detected by ELISA with a test strategy that is different for younger and older cows. We suggest testing younger cows more frequently than older cows and that testing should be done prior to 350 d in milk.