Harry Hemingway1. 1. Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London Medical School, 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 6BT, UK. h.hemingway@ucl.ac.uk
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Understanding prognosis--the future risk of adverse outcomes among people with existing disease--plays third fiddle behind clinical research into therapeutic interventions and novel diagnostic technologies. METHODS AND RESULTS: Diseases show marked variations in a wide range of prognostic outcomes, yet these variations have seldom been the subject of systematic and sustained epidemiologic and multidisciplinary research. This is important to prioritize hypotheses for testing in intervention studies in groups, and to refine tools for prognostication in individuals. Methodologic standards for the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of prognosis research are required. Training is needed for the clinicians, policymakers, and payers who use prognostic information. CONCLUSION: Here, arguments detracting from the potential scope of prognosis research are rebutted and misconceptions addressed with the aim of stimulating debate on the evolving role of prognosis research.
BACKGROUND: Understanding prognosis--the future risk of adverse outcomes among people with existing disease--plays third fiddle behind clinical research into therapeutic interventions and novel diagnostic technologies. METHODS AND RESULTS: Diseases show marked variations in a wide range of prognostic outcomes, yet these variations have seldom been the subject of systematic and sustained epidemiologic and multidisciplinary research. This is important to prioritize hypotheses for testing in intervention studies in groups, and to refine tools for prognostication in individuals. Methodologic standards for the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of prognosis research are required. Training is needed for the clinicians, policymakers, and payers who use prognostic information. CONCLUSION: Here, arguments detracting from the potential scope of prognosis research are rebutted and misconceptions addressed with the aim of stimulating debate on the evolving role of prognosis research.
Authors: M Kivimäki; J Head; J E Ferrie; A Singh-Manoux; H Westerlund; J Vahtera; A Leclerc; M Melchior; A Chevalier; K Alexanderson; M Zins; M Goldberg Journal: Occup Environ Med Date: 2008-07-08 Impact factor: 4.402
Authors: Christian D Mallen; George Peat; Elaine Thomas; Simon Wathall; Tracy Whitehurst; Charlotte Clements; Joanne Bailey; Jacqueline Gray; Peter R Croft Journal: BMC Musculoskelet Disord Date: 2006-11-10 Impact factor: 2.362
Authors: Martin Henriksson; Stephen Palmer; Ruoling Chen; Jacqueline Damant; Natalie K Fitzpatrick; Keith Abrams; Aroon D Hingorani; Ulf Stenestrand; Magnus Janzon; Gene Feder; Bruce Keogh; Martin J Shipley; Juan-Carlos Kaski; Adam Timmis; Mark Sculpher; Harry Hemingway Journal: BMJ Date: 2010-01-19